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Going for the Gold -- Oscar Predictions


Each year, Hollywood’s best and brightest gather in the Kodak Theater hoping to be recognized by The Academy of Arts and Sciences. Some believe the Oscars are nothing more than a glorified popularity contest.

However, receiving an award can make a relative nobody into a major Hollywood player. This year’s nominees offer old favorites and rising stars.

For students entering into a friendly wager, here are Voice’s picks and favorites for the Academy Awards airing at 7 p.m. this Sunday on ABC.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener”
Should win: Amy Adams, “Junebug”
Should have been nominated: Maria Bello, “A History of Violence”


Rachel Weisz walked away with a handful of awards for her performance in “The Constant Gardener,” and deservedly so. Weisz plays the role of Tessa Quale, working fearlessly to uncover the secrets of African drug companies. She is the leading contender for the Oscar on Sunday night.

My pick is Amy Adams, who slipped under most viewers’ radars. Adams plays the goofy, pregnant southern belle in the indie hit “Junebug.” She balances quirky comedic timing with dramatic sensibility – a task not easily completed.

Perhaps the Academy’s biggest oversight this year is its lack of nomination for Maria Bello. As the wife of a supposed mobster, Bello gave the best performance of her career and one of the best of the year.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”
Should win: Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”
Should have been nominated: Laura Linney, “The Squid and the Whale”


Without a doubt, last year belonged to Reese Witherspoon. Portraying the late June Carter-Cash, Witherspoon gave “Walk the Line” heart and soul. Nobody in the category will take the award from her.

The Academy constantly overlooks small independent features such as “The Squid and the Whale.” However, Laura Linney is an Academy favorite. Like Amy Adams in “Junebug,” Linney manages to perfect both the comedic and dramatic as a divorced mother of two. Her performance more than qualifies her for a nomination, especially against some of the lackluster nominees in the category.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain”
Should win: George Clooney, “Syriana”
Should have been nominated: Jeffrey Wright, “Broken Flowers”


This may be the hardest category to predict, as many great performances are competing. Although some argue Jake Gyllenhaal’s performance in “Brokeback Mountain” pales in comparison to Heath Ledger’s, Gyllenhaal shines as cowboy Jack Twist. Gyllenhaal plays Twist as a reckless and outspoken young man in an impossible love.

My personal favorite performance in the category belongs to George Clooney in “Syriana.” Clooney plays CIA agent Bob Barnes and possesses a fiery and fidgety attitude throughout the film. And unlike Gyllenhaal, who suffered in mediocre makeup and a fat suit, Clooney put on 35 pounds for the role. Another indie film under the radar is “Broken Flowers.” The impeccable Jeffrey Wright plays Winston, a mystery-loving music enthusiast. Although it may not be the best performance of the year, Wright deserves recognition for his work as one of the year’s most likeable characters.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”
Should have been nominated: Tommy Lee Jones, “The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada”


Philip Seymour Hoffman is a lock in this category. Playing the title character in “Capote,” Hoffman is perfect. He took the prize for this role in nearly every other award ceremony this year. Receiving the Oscar on Sunday is merely icing on the cake.

Though he won the Cannes Film Festival’s award for Best Actor, Tommy Lee Jones surprisingly failed to earn a nomination from the Academy. Jones not only directs “The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada,” but stars as well. He plays Pete Perkins, a man so devastated by his friend’s death he stops at nothing to honor him. His performance is captivating and heartbreaking.

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, “Crash”
Should win: Noah Baumbach, “The Squid and the Whale”
Should have been nominated: Judd Apatow and Steve Carell, “The 40 Year Old Virgin”


“Crash” was my least favorite film of 2005. Everything about the film was third-rate. The performances and characters lacked depth. The story was tired and formulaic. That said, the film will (unfortunately) win an Academy Award for its (awful) screenplay.

Every other screenplay nominated is 10 times more deserving, especially Noah Baumbach’s “The Squid and the Whale.” His semiautobiographical account of growing up in a divorced family, struggling with joint custody and the affections of teenage girls displays the most depth and charm of the nominated films.

However, the Academy snubbed the most charming film of the year with “The 40 Year Old Virgin’s” failure to garner a nod. Arguably the funniest and sweetest film of 2005, Carell and Apatow perfected the art of comedic writing.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, “Brokeback Mountain”
Should win: Josh Olson, “A History of Violence”
Should have been nominated: Gill Dennis and James Mangold, “Walk the Line”


A victory for the screenwriters of “Brokeback Mountain” is a sure thing. But Josh Olson’s adaptation of the graphic novel “A History of Violence” is the tightest screenplay of the year. The film twists and turns through a brief 90-minute runtime and constantly keeps the audience guessing.

“Walk the Line” didn’t get quite as much recognition from the Academy as it deserved. The screenplay, by Gill Dennis and director James Mangold, carried the excellent performances and the film itself. Without a nomination for the screenplay, the film was doomed from earning one of the five spots for Best Picture.

Best Director
Will win: Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”
Should win: George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Should have been nominated: Peter Jackson, “King Kong”


The most bothersome aspect of the Academy Awards is its predictability. Ang Lee is a given. He’ll win an award for his direction of “Brokeback Mountain.”

However, it would be fun if George Clooney took the award for “Good Night, and Good Luck.” He directs the best ensemble cast of the year with amazing precision.

Granted, I wasn’t a huge fan of the “King Kong” remake. But the thing I loved was Peter Jackson’s ability to milk what he could from a lackluster film. Besides, it takes a lot of guts to place a majority of the film in the hands of a computer-generated creature.

Best Picture
Will win: “Brokeback Mountain”
Should win: “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Should have been nominated: “Walk the Line”


The real race for the Best Picture trophy is between “Brokeback Mountain” and “Crash.” But my choice is the sharp and topical “Good Night, and Good Luck.”

Director George Clooney created a small film packing a powerful punch. David Strathairn stars as famed journalist Edward Murrow. Tackling the ideas prevalent in today’s world, the film is a sociopolitical commentary reaching further than “Brokeback Mountain” and “Crash” combined.

Many seem more deserving than the five movies vying for the trophy Sunday. The most obvious choice is “Walk the Line.” The film is as great a love story as “Brokeback Mountain” and tugs at the heartstrings more than “Munich,” not to mention the nominated performances of Reese Witherspoon and Joaquin Phoenix. The Academy’s failure to nominate the film is one of the greatest slights in the history of Oscar.

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