Oscar Predictions

A rather lackluster year for movies means a rather lackluster crop of films nominated at this year’s Academy Awards. It’s always lame when all the acting categories are predictable. I’d like to see some upsets this year, but I don’t really see that happening. Here are my predictions.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin in “Little Miss Sunshine”
Jackie Earle Haley in “Little Children”
Djimon Hounsou in “Blood Diamond”
Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls”
Mark Wahlberg in “The Departed”

Will Win: Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: Mark Wahlberg in “The Departed”
Should Have Been Nominated: James McAvoy in “The Last King of Scotland”

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza in “Babel”
Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal”
Abigail Breslin in “Little Miss Sunshine”
Jennifer Hudson in “Dreamgirls”
Rinko Kikuchi in “Babel”

Will Win: Jennifer Hudson in “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal”
Should Have Been Nominated: Shareeka Epps in “Half Nelson”

Achievement in Visual Effects
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
“Poseidon”
“Superman Returns”

Will Win: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
Should Win: “Superman Returns”
Should Have Been Nominated: “X-Men: The Last Stand”

Achievement in Sound Mixing
“Apocalypto”
“Blood Diamond”
“Dreamgirls”
“Flags of Our Fathers”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”

Will Win: “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: “Dreamgirls”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Children of Men”

Achievement in Sound Editing

“Apocalypto”
“Blood Diamond”
“Flags of Our Fathers”
“Letters from Iwo Jima”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”

Will Win: “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Should Win: “Blood Diamond”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Children of Men”

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
“Cars”
“Happy Feet”
“Monster House”

Will Win: “Cars”
Should Win: “Monster House”
Should Have Been Nominated: “A Scanner Darkly”

Achievement in Art Direction
“Dreamgirls”
“The Good Shepherd”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
“The Prestige”

Will Win: “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Volver”

Achievement in Cinematography
“The Black Dahlia”
“Children of Men”
“The Illusionist”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“The Prestige”

Will Win: “Children of Men”
Should Win: “Children of Men”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Good Shepherd”

Achievement in Costume Design
“Curse of the Golden Flower”
“The Devil Wears Prada”
“Dreamgirls”
“Marie Antoinette”
“The Queen”

Will Win: “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: “Marie Antoinette”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

Best Documentary Feature
“Deliver Us from Evil”
“An Inconvenient Truth”
“Iraq in Fragments”
“Jesus Camp”
“My Country, My Country”

Will Win: “An Inconvenient Truth”
Should Win: “Jesus Camp”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Shut Up and Sing”

Best Documentary Short Subject
“The Blood of Yingzhou District”
“Recycled Life”
“Rehearsing a Dream”
“Two Hands”

Will Win: “The Blood of Yingzhou District”
Should Win: “Rehearsing a Dream”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Stringers”

Achievement in Film Editing

“Babel”
“Blood Diamond”
“Children of Men”
“The Departed”
“United 93”

Will Win: “Babel”
Should Win: “United 93”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
“After the Wedding”
“Days of Glory (Indigènes)”
“The Lives of Others”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“Water”

Will Win: “The Lives of Others”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Volver”

Achievement in Makeup
“Apocalypto”
“Click”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”

Will Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Have Been Nominated: “X-Men: The Last Stand”

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
“Babel”
“The Good German”
“Notes on a Scandal”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“The Queen”

Will Win: “The Queen”
Should Win: “Notes on a Scandal”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Little Children”

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
“I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth”
“Listen” from “Dreamgirls”
“Love You I Do” from “Dreamgirls”
“Our Town” from “Cars”
“Patience” from “Dreamgirls”

Will Win: “Listen” from “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: “Listen” from “Dreamgirls”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Song of the Heart” from “Happy Feet”

Best Animated Short Film
“The Danish Poet”
“Lifted”
“The Little Matchgirl”
“Maestro”
“No Time for Nuts”

Will Win: “The Little Matchgirl”
Should Win: “Lifted”
Should Have Been Nominated: “One Rat Short”

Best Live Action Short Film
“Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)”
“Éramos Pocos (One Too Many)” (Kimuak)
“Helmer & Son”
“The Saviour”
“West Bank Story”

Will Win: “West Bank Story”
Should Win: “Helmer & Son”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Kidney Thieves”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio in “Blood Diamond”
Ryan Gosling in “Half Nelson”
Peter O’Toole in “Venus”
Will Smith in “The Pursuit of Happyness”
Forest Whitaker in “The Last King of Scotland”

Will Win: Forest Whitaker in “The Last King of Scotland”
Should Win: Ryan Gosling in “Half Nelson”
Should Have Been Nominated: Sascha Baron Cohen in “Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Penélope Cruz in “Volver”
Judi Dench in “Notes on a Scandal”
Helen Mirren in “The Queen”
Meryl Streep in “The Devil Wears Prada”
Kate Winslet in “Little Children”

Will Win: Helen Mirren in “The Queen”
Should Win: Kate Winslet in “Little Children”
Should Have Been Nominated: Sienna Miller in “Factory Girl”

Adapted Screenplay
“Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”
“Children of Men”
“The Departed”
“Little Children”
“Notes on a Scandal”

Will Win: “The Departed”
Should Win: “Little Children”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Prestige”

Original Screenplay
“Babel”
“Letters from Iwo Jima”
“Little Miss Sunshine”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“The Queen”

Will Win: “Little Miss Sunshine”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Brick”

Achievement in Directing
“Babel” Alejandro González Iñárritu
“The Departed” Martin Scorsese
“Letters from Iwo Jima” Clint Eastwood
“The Queen” Stephen Frears
“United 93” Paul Greengrass

Will Win: “The Departed” Martin Scorsese
Should Win: “The Departed” Martin Scorsese
Should Have Been Nominated: “Children of Men” Alfonso Cuaron

Best Motion Picture of the Year
“Babel”
“The Queen”
“Letters from Iwo Jima”
“Little Miss Sunshine”
“The Departed”

Will Win: “Little Miss Sunshine”
Should Win: “The Departed”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Children of Men”